Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.890426 15.892069 18.050769 20.548196 23.354069 26.405206 29.970288
2025-02-16 10.806477 13.487128 16.605183 20.484951 25.166941 30.617591 37.425531
2025-02-23 9.230954 12.185374 15.792255 20.491701 26.421712 33.621893 42.988388
2025-03-02 8.131484 11.283685 15.300491 20.749788 27.898119 36.898104 49.020460
2025-03-09 7.211039 10.456982 14.751689 20.786547 28.972864 39.605130 54.356747
2025-03-16 6.376263 9.634323 14.098202 20.577550 29.640763 41.749514 59.005934
2025-03-23 5.808820 9.111499 13.781980 20.762149 30.797773 44.547194 64.611945
2025-03-30 5.462104 8.864649 13.816484 21.414727 32.611389 48.299561 71.680699
2025-04-06 4.935203 8.289068 13.312609 21.226120 33.175762 50.293847 76.339441
2025-04-13 4.266952 7.425169 12.297837 20.182820 32.389040 50.271046 78.052345
2025-04-20 4.028341 7.223257 12.277124 20.641754 33.861782 53.592863 84.780215
2025-04-27 3.805604 7.024227 12.239331 21.059167 35.276932 56.875484 91.576335
2025-05-04 3.476590 6.621633 11.851546 20.904297 35.809835 58.884128 96.604739
2025-05-11 3.155228 6.201866 11.401324 20.611721 36.098076 60.521167 101.132934
2025-05-18 2.934300 5.938843 11.191081 20.695105 36.985296 63.115840 107.246048
2025-05-25 2.758698 5.741875 11.077504 20.929412 38.125442 66.153321 114.181961
2025-06-01 2.570559 5.502467 10.867677 20.975250 38.937887 68.680721 120.383583
2025-06-08 2.363168 5.205175 10.528031 20.761606 39.280749 70.434241 125.371082
2025-06-15 2.228389 5.039069 10.416534 20.948690 40.324966 73.391411 132.462033
2025-06-22 2.162993 5.008298 10.556988 21.606217 42.234443 77.888767 142.317570
2025-06-29 2.001061 4.760133 10.258828 21.416199 42.594550 79.728476 147.701170
2025-07-06 1.758540 4.314862 9.537650 20.364397 41.305287 78.622888 147.930998
2025-07-13 1.695901 4.258733 9.592714 20.827072 42.860778 82.598027 157.192536